ATP Madrid R64
Darcis - Fish 1 @ 2.35
Mardy Fish is a typical home player. In the States and around it (Canada) he has a terrific season, but when it comes to Europe, things go so much slower for him.He has never had a great run in Madrid for instance. With the years it has been going from bad to worse - 3rd round, second, second and first round out last year.Mardy is not a bad player for sure, he has a lot to give on hard - great serve, good volleys, solid FH, not that solid BH but still not a big flow.What keeps him out of the highest positions in ATP is perhaps his discomfort playing away from home.Of course, there is also the fact that he's no good on clay and that's the surface we play in Europe the most, but his results for the last 4 years in Madrid on hard are far from convincing as well.Steve Darcis is a young player who is on his way to reach higher ranks in the ATP i believe. He has a very good base for winning matches on hard and all he needs is to step in the main draw of some bigger tournaments and be lucky with the draw.That's exactly the right time, place and draw for this guy to make some noise, just like Muller did in the States.He won Devilder and Bolleli in straight sets in the qualies and i believe he is now ready to take a top30 scalp.I guess the bookies believe the same as the odds are set actually right.No real value in this pick but certainly a chance to check if my theory for Fish being only a home player, at odds higher than the level ball
Igor Andreev - Gilles Simon 1 @ 2.05
Quite equal match at first sight.We have an agressive player that Andreev is, mistakenly stamped as a clay courter as he is imo an all rounder, especially in the last year, he has proven to be equally good on both surfaces.He had a very strange match in a very strange Kremlin cup tournament where he lost from one set up and 5-2 against the young Frenchman Chardy.This is actually his main blooper putting him ssihjtly underdog against Simon.But i believe in the abilities of the Russian to display super high quality tennis on hard, just like he did at the US Open, putting Federer in trouble to lose in the 5th set.Simon has been on
a constant rise in the last year. He showed a very solid defensive tennis with a lot of success.Just like Andreev he had a strange result lately, in Metz losing to Mahut.His defensive qualities were the main weapon that won him the Bucharest clay tournament right before the Open de Moselle. Now, after a few mid range tournaments where the results are not to be taken as pure information, we have the Madrid Masters. Every player will show his best there as it is an important one giving a lot of points and money.So when i take the best seen from both through the year - let's say Simon losing to Del Potro in 5 in the US Open and Andreev the same against Federer, when i weigh these two performances, i believe that Andreev has a bit better arsenal compared to his oponent and should be actually favourit.I would have taken Igor at 1,90 and i am happy to do it now at 2,05. posted by Midnight Sun @ 11:48,
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